Avian Flu- Hype or A Real Threat? (house, single, The Cure)

hookers with machineguns · 01-26-2006, 07:54 PM

Most people I speak to are generally apathetic about the potential Bird Flu epidemic. But, I’m assuming you probably are too.

We usually encounter a lot of different pandemic threats, like ebola, HIV, smallpox, West Nile virus, monkey pox, and so on. But, I’ve actually heard claims that a potential avian flu epidemic could become as lethal as the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 that killed over 50 million people in one year. The experts’ current “worst case scenario” predicts an 150 million casualty from the bird flu. Is it really “the single greatest risk to our world today”? Or is it over-hyped in this growingly fearful world?

The spread of H5N1 is the particular virus that has been closely followed. Sixteen countries, mainly in or near Southeast Asia, have already reported outbreaks. Right now, the virus can spread to humans through contact with mainly infected poultry, ducks, or geese. But, the fear is the inevitable mutation that all viruses go through. Scientists say H5N1 is mutating by the hour, and it is only a matter of time before the virus can become transmitted from human-to-human. Think of how easy it could spread (people traveling all over the world on airplanes), and how difficult it is to detect right away. Most viruses have an incubation period of several hours if not days. This means, once the virus enters its host, the symptoms do not occur right away. It may be several days before you feel the early warning signs, and several places and people you’ve spread the disease to in the mean time. The early symptoms are a lot like the common flu, including fever, chest pain, coughing, etc. Within a few days, your lungs are filled with fluid, and oxygen cannot get to your bloodstream. The virus is a threat to kill anyone of all ages and all health. I don’t know the survival rate, but even with treatment, I assume it cannot be anymore than 20%.

Another well-discussed theory ponders whether H5N1 can crossbreed with the common human flu, through pigs (fyi, the human flu virus does infect pigs). In this case, an entirely new and deadly strain of the virus is formed.

The hypothetical epidemic theory doesn’t include the potential economic impact. Outbreak areas will get shut down, schools will be closed, roads blocked off, astronomical quarantine costs, businesses closed, and people less frequently leaving their homes. Clinics won’t be able to be supply enough vaccines (the realistic vaccine stockpile may only be enough for a few percentages of the entire population). The public will begin to panic. Hospitals will become overcrowded, perhaps unmanageable. Think about Hurricane Katrina’s response, now on a national or global scale.

The problem is, while our top scientists are trying to find the cure for H5N1, it may be too late. A more lethal, mutated strain may have emerged and made that drug obsolete. I’m sure you’ve heard it said before on the matter: “It’s only a matter of time.”

What do you think? Is bird flu a serious threat? Or over-hyped?

01-26-2006, 07:54 PM	#1 (permalink)
hookers with machineguns Music Addict Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,738	Avian Flu- Hype or A Real Threat? Most people I speak to are generally apathetic about the potential Bird Flu epidemic. But, I’m assuming you probably are too. We usually encounter a lot of different pandemic threats, like ebola, HIV, smallpox, West Nile virus, monkey pox, and so on. But, I’ve actually heard claims that a potential avian flu epidemic could become as lethal as the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 that killed over 50 million people in one year. The experts’ current “worst case scenario” predicts an 150 million casualty from the bird flu. Is it really “the single greatest risk to our world today”? Or is it over-hyped in this growingly fearful world? The spread of H5N1 is the particular virus that has been closely followed. Sixteen countries, mainly in or near Southeast Asia, have already reported outbreaks. Right now, the virus can spread to humans through contact with mainly infected poultry, ducks, or geese. But, the fear is the inevitable mutation that all viruses go through. Scientists say H5N1 is mutating by the hour, and it is only a matter of time before the virus can become transmitted from human-to-human. Think of how easy it could spread (people traveling all over the world on airplanes), and how difficult it is to detect right away. Most viruses have an incubation period of several hours if not days. This means, once the virus enters its host, the symptoms do not occur right away. It may be several days before you feel the early warning signs, and several places and people you’ve spread the disease to in the mean time. The early symptoms are a lot like the common flu, including fever, chest pain, coughing, etc. Within a few days, your lungs are filled with fluid, and oxygen cannot get to your bloodstream. The virus is a threat to kill anyone of all ages and all health. I don’t know the survival rate, but even with treatment, I assume it cannot be anymore than 20%. Another well-discussed theory ponders whether H5N1 can crossbreed with the common human flu, through pigs (fyi, the human flu virus does infect pigs). In this case, an entirely new and deadly strain of the virus is formed. The hypothetical epidemic theory doesn’t include the potential economic impact. Outbreak areas will get shut down, schools will be closed, roads blocked off, astronomical quarantine costs, businesses closed, and people less frequently leaving their homes. Clinics won’t be able to be supply enough vaccines (the realistic vaccine stockpile may only be enough for a few percentages of the entire population). The public will begin to panic. Hospitals will become overcrowded, perhaps unmanageable. Think about Hurricane Katrina’s response, now on a national or global scale. The problem is, while our top scientists are trying to find the cure for H5N1, it may be too late. A more lethal, mutated strain may have emerged and made that drug obsolete. I’m sure you’ve heard it said before on the matter: “It’s only a matter of time.” What do you think? Is bird flu a serious threat? Or over-hyped?