Avian Flu- Hype or A Real Threat? (house, single, The Cure)

hookers with machineguns · 01-26-2006, 08:54 PM

Most people I speak to are generally apathetic about the potential Bird Flu epidemic. But, I’m assuming you probably are too.

We usually encounter a lot of different pandemic threats, like ebola, HIV, smallpox, West Nile virus, monkey pox, and so on. But, I’ve actually heard claims that a potential avian flu epidemic could become as lethal as the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 that killed over 50 million people in one year. The experts’ current “worst case scenario” predicts an 150 million casualty from the bird flu. Is it really “the single greatest risk to our world today”? Or is it over-hyped in this growingly fearful world?

The spread of H5N1 is the particular virus that has been closely followed. Sixteen countries, mainly in or near Southeast Asia, have already reported outbreaks. Right now, the virus can spread to humans through contact with mainly infected poultry, ducks, or geese. But, the fear is the inevitable mutation that all viruses go through. Scientists say H5N1 is mutating by the hour, and it is only a matter of time before the virus can become transmitted from human-to-human. Think of how easy it could spread (people traveling all over the world on airplanes), and how difficult it is to detect right away. Most viruses have an incubation period of several hours if not days. This means, once the virus enters its host, the symptoms do not occur right away. It may be several days before you feel the early warning signs, and several places and people you’ve spread the disease to in the mean time. The early symptoms are a lot like the common flu, including fever, chest pain, coughing, etc. Within a few days, your lungs are filled with fluid, and oxygen cannot get to your bloodstream. The virus is a threat to kill anyone of all ages and all health. I don’t know the survival rate, but even with treatment, I assume it cannot be anymore than 20%.

Another well-discussed theory ponders whether H5N1 can crossbreed with the common human flu, through pigs (fyi, the human flu virus does infect pigs). In this case, an entirely new and deadly strain of the virus is formed.

The hypothetical epidemic theory doesn’t include the potential economic impact. Outbreak areas will get shut down, schools will be closed, roads blocked off, astronomical quarantine costs, businesses closed, and people less frequently leaving their homes. Clinics won’t be able to be supply enough vaccines (the realistic vaccine stockpile may only be enough for a few percentages of the entire population). The public will begin to panic. Hospitals will become overcrowded, perhaps unmanageable. Think about Hurricane Katrina’s response, now on a national or global scale.

The problem is, while our top scientists are trying to find the cure for H5N1, it may be too late. A more lethal, mutated strain may have emerged and made that drug obsolete. I’m sure you’ve heard it said before on the matter: “It’s only a matter of time.”

What do you think? Is bird flu a serious threat? Or over-hyped?

Merkaba · 01-26-2006, 09:18 PM

Living in NZ I'm pretty bloody laid back about it. Frankly it's the least of my worries but it is a scary prospect none the less.

My biggest fear for this would be if it developed into a superbug. Which if I'm correct, is one that no set cure will work for, theres variations in the DNA of a superbug that allow it to constantly evolve and get accustomed to any previous extermination attempts. Meaning it would keep the scientists on their toes for years while we all die off.

At the moment I think it's overhyped. I don't think it will spread worldwide, theres a chance, but I think we should be capable of keeping it under control for the mean time until a cure is developed.

PerFeCTioNThrUSileNCe · 01-26-2006, 09:34 PM

i agree somewhat. i think that yes, of course its a potentially dangerous threat. and like merkaba, my biggest fear would be if it were to develop and mutate itself and become completely uncureable (spelling) and spread worldwide. i think i may consider myself a little more cautious about this than merkaba, but im confident that scientists should be able to control it before anything too major happens.

IamAlejo · 01-26-2006, 09:36 PM

My mom was watching Oprah the other day and they had a show on this.

They said normally a pandemic comes around once every 20 years. And that the time frame is coming down to where it is right at that 20 years now.

adidasss · 01-26-2006, 09:42 PM

i think it's hyped.....people get so worked up about these things, i mean what's a little spanish flu every now and then... we survived the last one didn't we? i think this sorta panic inducing is very reminiscent of the y2k bug......remeber that one folks? how the world was supposed to end? man...people are so parranoid lately.....

IamAlejo · 01-26-2006, 09:44 PM

I figured I beat herpes, I can beat this.

i mean no

hookers with machineguns · 01-26-2006, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adidasss

people are so parranoid lately.....

There's actually those within the Bush administration that have a 'legitimate' fear that terrorists will try to weaponize Bird Flu. It sounds pretty crazy, but then again, terrorists (as well as many governments) have weaponized small pox and bubonic plague.

Urban Hat€monger ? · 01-26-2006, 09:44 PM

Although I think there is some truth to it I think most of it is media scaremongering.

I remember when I was a kid growing up in the 80s and all of a sudden there being loads of news items , documentarys & tv dramas about how rabies was going to be the next big killer in the UK & how everybody`s household pets were going to start turning into rabid psychopathic killers.For a while it seemed the biggest threat to national security was a Frenchman in a boat with a dog.
I became convinced my next door neighbours dog was going to murder me in my sleep.

hookers with machineguns · 01-26-2006, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IamAlejo

I figured I beat herpes, I can beat this.

How about a airborne herpes-birdflu crossbreed? Then you'd be f*cked.

PerFeCTioNThrUSileNCe · 01-26-2006, 09:47 PM

yeah...i dont think the world was supposed to end because of the y2k bug, but it would have fallen into a state of chaos. (correct me if im wrong on that one) also i thinkn that this bird flu theory is a little more conceivable than the y2k theory. again...correct me if i have my facts wrong, i dont remember too much about the y2k bug and what its effects were supposed to be.

01-26-2006, 08:54 PM	#1 (permalink)
hookers with machineguns Music Addict Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,753	Avian Flu- Hype or A Real Threat? Most people I speak to are generally apathetic about the potential Bird Flu epidemic. But, I’m assuming you probably are too. We usually encounter a lot of different pandemic threats, like ebola, HIV, smallpox, West Nile virus, monkey pox, and so on. But, I’ve actually heard claims that a potential avian flu epidemic could become as lethal as the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 that killed over 50 million people in one year. The experts’ current “worst case scenario” predicts an 150 million casualty from the bird flu. Is it really “the single greatest risk to our world today”? Or is it over-hyped in this growingly fearful world? The spread of H5N1 is the particular virus that has been closely followed. Sixteen countries, mainly in or near Southeast Asia, have already reported outbreaks. Right now, the virus can spread to humans through contact with mainly infected poultry, ducks, or geese. But, the fear is the inevitable mutation that all viruses go through. Scientists say H5N1 is mutating by the hour, and it is only a matter of time before the virus can become transmitted from human-to-human. Think of how easy it could spread (people traveling all over the world on airplanes), and how difficult it is to detect right away. Most viruses have an incubation period of several hours if not days. This means, once the virus enters its host, the symptoms do not occur right away. It may be several days before you feel the early warning signs, and several places and people you’ve spread the disease to in the mean time. The early symptoms are a lot like the common flu, including fever, chest pain, coughing, etc. Within a few days, your lungs are filled with fluid, and oxygen cannot get to your bloodstream. The virus is a threat to kill anyone of all ages and all health. I don’t know the survival rate, but even with treatment, I assume it cannot be anymore than 20%. Another well-discussed theory ponders whether H5N1 can crossbreed with the common human flu, through pigs (fyi, the human flu virus does infect pigs). In this case, an entirely new and deadly strain of the virus is formed. The hypothetical epidemic theory doesn’t include the potential economic impact. Outbreak areas will get shut down, schools will be closed, roads blocked off, astronomical quarantine costs, businesses closed, and people less frequently leaving their homes. Clinics won’t be able to be supply enough vaccines (the realistic vaccine stockpile may only be enough for a few percentages of the entire population). The public will begin to panic. Hospitals will become overcrowded, perhaps unmanageable. Think about Hurricane Katrina’s response, now on a national or global scale. The problem is, while our top scientists are trying to find the cure for H5N1, it may be too late. A more lethal, mutated strain may have emerged and made that drug obsolete. I’m sure you’ve heard it said before on the matter: “It’s only a matter of time.” What do you think? Is bird flu a serious threat? Or over-hyped?

01-26-2006, 09:18 PM	#2 (permalink)
Merkaba Whitewater! Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: New Zealand Posts: 2,885	Living in NZ I'm pretty bloody laid back about it. Frankly it's the least of my worries but it is a scary prospect none the less. My biggest fear for this would be if it developed into a superbug. Which if I'm correct, is one that no set cure will work for, theres variations in the DNA of a superbug that allow it to constantly evolve and get accustomed to any previous extermination attempts. Meaning it would keep the scientists on their toes for years while we all die off. At the moment I think it's overhyped. I don't think it will spread worldwide, theres a chance, but I think we should be capable of keeping it under control for the mean time until a cure is developed. __________________ She thinks I'm a reclusive genius, she's going to be very disappointed when she finds out i'm a reclusive wanker

01-26-2006, 09:36 PM	#4 (permalink)
IamAlejo Muck Fusic Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Virginia Beach Posts: 1,575	My mom was watching Oprah the other day and they had a show on this. They said normally a pandemic comes around once every 20 years. And that the time frame is coming down to where it is right at that 20 years now. __________________ a man, a plan, a canal, panama

01-26-2006, 09:42 PM	#5 (permalink)
adidasss Slavic gay sauce Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Abu Dhabi Posts: 7,993	i think it's hyped.....people get so worked up about these things, i mean what's a little spanish flu every now and then... we survived the last one didn't we? i think this sorta panic inducing is very reminiscent of the y2k bug......remeber that one folks? how the world was supposed to end? man...people are so parranoid lately..... __________________ “Think of what a paradise this world would be if men were kind and wise.” - Kurt Vonnegut, Cat's Cradle. Last.fm

01-26-2006, 09:44 PM	#6 (permalink)
IamAlejo Muck Fusic Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Virginia Beach Posts: 1,575	I figured I beat herpes, I can beat this. i mean no __________________ a man, a plan, a canal, panama

01-26-2006, 09:44 PM	#8 (permalink)
Urban Hat€monger ? The Sexual Intellectual Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Somewhere cooler than you Posts: 18,605	Although I think there is some truth to it I think most of it is media scaremongering. I remember when I was a kid growing up in the 80s and all of a sudden there being loads of news items , documentarys & tv dramas about how rabies was going to be the next big killer in the UK & how everybody`s household pets were going to start turning into rabid psychopathic killers.For a while it seemed the biggest threat to national security was a Frenchman in a boat with a dog. I became convinced my next door neighbours dog was going to murder me in my sleep. __________________ Urb's RYM Stuff Most people sell their soul to the devil, but the devil sells his soul to Nick Cave.