jwb

I don't think it's too early to speculate/cast your predictions. In fact i think a true sportsman would recognize that if you wait till after the mid terms then your predictions don't count as much anyway....

So what do you guys think? Will Biden be a one term president? Really there are two separate questions to try to predict the answer to:

Is Biden even going to be the candidate?
If so, will he win?

The Batlord

His one piece of legislation he was gonna have to wave around for three years went in the ****ter and he did nothing about it. He could have been the guy who got us out of Afghanistan and gave us the next New Deal but now he's just a doddering old weakling.

But I don't know if Trump's toxicity will wear off by the next election and no other Republican is really gaining traction with him still on top. So I don't, man, but if it's Kamala v. Trump I say she goes down hard. Nobody ****ing likes her and Trump would eat her alive on stage.

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jwb

I'm gonna go ahead and say i don't even know which legislation you are talking about but i assume it's that infrastructure bill or whatever i heard people talking about... I have not even tried to follow any of this **** closely since he got in office

With regard to him being the candidate... Even though i don't quite think he's where he needs to be to do another 6 or so years of this **** i also can't imagine the Democrats are going to think a winning strategy in 2024 is going to be to replace him with Kamala.

I dunno why but that just sounds like it shows way too much weakness for people to respect it. Like it will be so easy to construe that as they know the old man is ****in up so they had to retire him and get his VP in there... Not a great look.

So i don't really see him or the Democratic party going that route. Another possibility is someone could try to primary him like a few people were trying to do to Trump last time but yeah...i have a hard time seeing such an effort being successful either. So i am going with i believe he is absolutely going to be the Democratic candidate running for reelection in 2024.

As for will he win that's harder to answer. Usually i give the benefit of the doubt to the incumbent. I think the odds are basically in his favor but it feels like most of the energy is on the other side of the isle and really Trump was supposed to win 2020 but the pandemic spoiled that. So its possible team Trump could come back to grab that 2nd term by the pussy. And this time they will have the advantage of being able to use the last 4 years against Biden directly. But if i were forced to bet rn i dunno i think id give Biden the slight edge on being reelected.

The Batlord

If it wasn't for Stop the Steal and Jan 6 Trump would have more of a shot but I think he kind of poisoned his chances with swing voters. I'm not gonna underestimate American stupidity but only the base could stand by that ****.

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rubber soul

My guess is he won't run, especially if his numbers remain in the tank. You guys are right about Kamala too, even her own people don't like her. If the Republicans are smart and they actually do care about democracy, they'll find a way to dump Trump (hey, that rhymes ) and find someone a bit more moderate like my Governor, Larry Hogan.

As for the Dems, you know Kamala will run if Biden doesn't but I see her as Hilary Clinton light. Trump will wipe the floor with her for so many reasons, some legitimate, some not so much. The best bet might be to go with Pete Buttigieg, he's young, everyone seems to like him, and if the blacks don't go Kamala or bust (there was a controversial racial incident while he was mayor of South Bend), I think he has a great shot to win in 2024.

If they do decide to go with an African-American woman though, they can't go wrong with Stacey Abrams (hope she makes it as Georgia Governor)

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The Batlord

Only uber Democrats like Pete Buttigieg. Nobody else cares cause he's just another boring preppy plank of wood who says what donors want him to say. He's like Biden but without the weird old man charm to take the edge off.

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Exo

The left would be a bunch of mouth breathing morons if they trot out Biden or Harris. They're so unpopular even from their own party. It's like laying down and letting the right sh*t on their chest. Bad thing is unless somebody comes out of nowhere as a candidate, I don't think the left has anybody else. It's grim for democrats.

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LastFM

SUPREME POO BAH MODERATOR EXTRAORDINAIRE

jwb

It's a catch 22 cause without the stop the steal narrative he would look pretty weak trying to run again after being beat as an incumbent....

Honestly i think swing voters might be over stated given how polarized everything is and how large voter turn out was in 2020.. doubling down on your brand no matter what might be a more effective move than trying to court the so called independents at this point...

jwb

the time to pick a better candidate was in 2020 lol. To not back your own incumbent is not a good play imo.

The irony is that his main argument in 2020 was that he was going to usher us out of the Trump nightmare and the impression that was out there was he might not even run for a second term but he will get rid of Trump and give the Dems some time to regroup. So much for that... If Trump tries to run again then you can hardly hang your hat and be like well my jobs done here... But only time will tell.

The Batlord

Considering his approval numbers never went above 50% and now he's down to his 30% base I think himbo voters who didn't take all his inflammatory rhetoric seriously in 2016 but went bug-eyed at Jan 6 will tank his chances. What the right needs is another Trump without all the baggage. Josh Hawley probably wishes he could be that dude but he's as boring as Pete Buttigieg. Ted Cruz would take that mantle but he's too much of a worm to capture any kind of excitement. Tbh the right should just beg Tucker Carlson to give up his show and run.

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