I honestly i have to wonder what kind of person would've voted for him in 2020 but consider jan 6 to be a deal breaker.... That was the climax of rhetoric he'd been engaged in for years

You're talking half his inner circle had turned against him, he was impeached twice and yet 70 million people or something like that voted for him. You could be right but as far as Trump goes i am kinda hesitant on claims that he's finally gone too far. I've just heard that one so many times. Time will tell.

It's possible he won't even win the nomination. Maybe that high turn out was just a function of partisan politics but i dunno... Felt like Trump vs anti-Trump more than D vs R

I think Trump went too far by racking up frequent flyer miles on the Lolita express. They should delay the Maxwell trial to shortly before the election coverage as a strategic move.

Kamala's bust is one of the few things she has going for her. For someone to potentially lose the double whammy takes a lot of effort, but she looks like she did it.
Plus you can't take seriously anyone whose name begins in Butt...
himbo?

What about the Duke of Death, OH's friend down there in Florida? Or YEE-HAW Abbot?

Let's not forget that Covid will definitely also have an effect on the next election, as it's wiping out Republican voters like there's no tomorrow.

When asked what was the most difficult thing about being Prime Minister, Mrs. Thatcher famously replied, "Events", and there are so many events that can happen between now and 2024. How, for example, will covid and the economy play out over the coming years? Will Trump's legal troubles make him ineligible to run?

But the big one to me is, Will the US still have a democracy in 2024? It's present democratic status is "backsliding". Gerrymandering, voter suppresion continues, as does the Republicans plan to build partisanship into the fabric of vote counting, etc, Here's an article from a British newspaper about what's happening:-

"Terrifying for American democracy": https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...up-republicans

Tied up to this is how much impact the televised Jan 6th Committee hearings will have. If enough people notice the coup that the GOP attempted, the Dems should be in a stronger position, because the decision should come down to democracy vs.third-world-type nepotistic autocracy. If they think that far ahead, even Trump supporters might not like the idea of Javanka coming back to snap up every White House job title available, like they did last time.

But even if things go well for Biden in the next 2 years, I suspect he will be a one-termer:

He's already the oldest Pres ever, I believe, so I think it would be credible if the Dems have him retire, out of concern for his age. And of all the people mentioned so far, I like the idea of Stacey Abrams best. She'll be a more vigorous fighter for the Dems when Biden's "reach across the aisle" rhetoric has floundered on the blatant obstructionism of the GOP.

Yeah you are right they have a valid reason to but i think the optics of it are bad enough they will avoid it. I could be wrong. So far he says he's running.

Edit: as far as a random challenger deciding to primary him... Like i said i could see that sure but i don't think it will be successful. If he isn't the candidate it will likely be cause he doesn't run. But i think he will.

If you go by history, then yes, Biden will run for re-election, but it wouldn't shock me if Biden fell on his sword for the good of the country.

Lisna is absolutely right about 2024. What happens that year will decide whether we remain some sort of democracy (let's face it, in reality, the US is an oligarchy that knows how to bamboozle the public). If enough people are wise enough to overcome the partisan gerrymandering and such (Ironically, Maryland is one of the very few states that gerrymander in favor of the Dems). then maybe we'll survive to set things straight. If not, well at least I can say most of my life was fairly stable. I fear for you youngsters here though.

I'm betting Biden will be a one-term President.

I'm betting the Republicans will win back the White House.

I'm wondering which Republican will be President in 2024?

Falling on their swords for the country's benefit is surely a common trait of politicians.

We don’t have to wait until ‘24 to know whether we’ll completely lose our democracy.
If we lose the House and Senate next year, they’ll immediately impeach Biden
and make up something about Harris and impeach her, then we’ll have the next
Speaker as the prez - which will be Dolt 45.

Judging by her demeanor, I would say that Abrams will go the slow, steady route
of serving as Governor for at least a term or two, then maybe announce,
but it won’t matter by then, because Dems will be shut out by the autocracy.
Plus, can you imagine if Abrams ran and won against Mar-A-Lardo
what kind of immense escalation of racial hatred that would produce?

Won't happen. Oh, they might impeach Biden but there is no way they'll have enough Republicans in the Senate to throw him out. The numbers actually favor the Dems in the Senate midterms so at best The Republicans can only hope for a one or two seat majority, certainly not enough for the two thirds needed to overthrow Biden.

As for Abrams, yes, earning her wings as Governor first makes a lot of sense, but if we're talking the end of life as we've known it, I wouldn't rule out a draft Stacey movement.

And as far as the racial hatred goes, well, that's going to happen anyway, isn't it? :(