Thanks for the question, SRG, and congratulations on your username abbreviation.

For the first, I think that by 2024 various present dangers will have caught up with Trump so that he won't be running:-
i) all his conman and sex-predator cases will make him clearly untenable to voters - or that one for which he is the "unindicted co-conspirator"
ii) his wayward, damaging leadership of the GOP will make the party finally reject him. How much longer can they ride along with a leader who is perpetually looking back at the last election and advising supporters not to vote
iii) something bad will come out of the Jan 6th inquiry and the GOP will have another moment like they did on, er, Jan 7th.

As for who will run on the Dem ticket; I don't know. Will Biden triumph over his advancing years and decreasing popularity? Personally I'd like Kamila Harris to run, just to have a female president at last, but I imagine she wouldn't be chosen by the Dems.

How about you, SGR? What would be your answers to your own questions?

^If the last election is of any indication, probably Kyrsten Sinema lol

Our economy incentivizes having a stateless underclass of illegal immigrants for their cheap (read: slave) labour. I'm of the mind that Biden (among others) aren't "solving" the issue of illegal immigration by making legal immigration more surmountable because they recognize the benefit that slave labour will have on their numbers and economic approval rating. If we really wanted to solve the "issue" of the first and third worlds rubbing against one another, then we'd make an effort to elevate our neighbours to the first world instead of sending in "humanitarian aid" tanks and contras to destabilize any Central/South American country that starts to flourish. The u.s. likely won't do that because they're interested in maintaining dominance in the western sphere.

Shout out to boss man Biden for killing Powell though, I'll give him cred for that.

Yes, long-term, that is the best solution all round, but not very likely. I imagine there is a trickle of well-intentioned aid going from north to south, but i have no idea how much. Back in a different era (and to Caucasians, rather than Latinos) the US pumped millions of dollars into rebuilding Europe. Thank you, Mr. Marshall, and your Plan.

As is appropriate for a political thread, I have no pride or scruples about accepting praise for my guy from any quarter or for any reason. I'm not sure how Biden killed Powell, but I'll take that as a win anyway: Go, Biden!!

Personally, I'm not certain of anything either. I think Trump wants to run, but I don't know if his advancing age will result in health complications that will force him not to (very possible). I don't foresee any cases getting far enough or damaging enough to seriously impact Trump's chances at winning the nomination - when he was first elected, and throughout his presidency it was claimed that there would be a scandal big enough to impeach/remove him but as we saw, the party stood by him throughout all of it (which doesn't necessarily predict the future, but let's say I'm not optimistic about the chances).

I don't think the GOP party hacks necessarily want Trump to run again. They'd much rather have a Jeb Bush or a Marco Rubio who will tow the line without causing much of a fuss. But if the majority of the party base still supports Trump and wants him to run, I don't think it'd be politically advisable for the GOP to quash him. I don't think anything will come out of the Jan 6th inquiry (at least in regards to Trump) that we didn't already know - I don't think they'll find any political killshot against Trump - that said, I don't think that's the point of it - it's mostly political theater designed to damage Trump/the GOP (and quite frankly, I do think it's effective political theater - the longer the Dems keep it in the headlines, the better it is for them). I think how the midterms go and how Biden's approval rating starts to trend by then will inform Trump's decision about whether or not to run.

As for your mention of Trump casting aspersion on the last election's validity and telling news media and others that Republicans won't vote in future elections (I don't remember if he explicitly told them en masse not to vote, though he might've in the Georgia runoff election), I absolutely agree with you. It's a terrible look. And if he continues to frame the 2020 election the way he has been in a hypothetical case where he becomes the 2024 GOP nominee, he'll almost certainly lose the general election, because it comes across as petty and whiny to independents - and for the most part, independents don't care about Trump's personal grievances. If I was Trump's political adviser, I'd encourage him to reframe it by promising that if he's elected, his #1 priority will be election reform and the incontrovertible auditability of future election results (regardless of whether or not that's really practical) without focusing on the 2020 election - I think that could be a winning message with independents.

If Trump does not run, he will likely play kingmaker for the GOP - and in that case, I think it'll most likely be DeSantis that gets the nomination - my runner-up guesses would be Ted Cruz/Rand Paul.

As for the Dems, I'm less confident about what will happen. Biden will be, what, 82 by the time of the next general election?. Given all the questions about age the last election, it would be a hard sell at 82 years old (the age issue would be easier for Trump to surmount given that he'll be around the same age Biden was when he was first elected). Granted, as an incumbent, campaigning would be much easier for Biden, assuming he's popular by re-election time. A big part of that will be whether or not the infrastructure bill gets passed (I'm starting to think it won't). If Republicans get a majority again by the end of the midterms, that'll basically be the death knell of that bill.

The prospect of electing the first woman president might be enough of a sell for some liberals, but I don't think it will be for independents (see: the 2016 election). It doesn't help that Kamala isn't exactly a superstar of popularity in her own party. She's got charisma and PR issues that, to her credit, she's been trying to work on (e.g. the recent NASA space thing she did) - of course, that wasn't entirely successful, but she is obviously trying to improve on that front. I'd personally put low chances of Kamala running...unless something happens that unfortunately (with all respect to Kamala) results in her becoming the incumbent by the time of the 2024 election. If she was the incumbent, she'd be able to have more influence/leverage over whether or not she's the Dem nominee for 2024. Sooner or later, AOC will run for president though and I think she'll be elected. Whether or not she'll be the first woman president is up for grabs though.

I swear to god Lisna we'll get that liberalism out of you if we have to beat it out with a shovel.

That's a good, solid analysis of how the candidacy for the next election is playing out, SGR !

I agree that with the GOP swallowing 2 impeachments like children under threat taking their medicine, the Jan 6th Commission is unlikely to come up with that "political killshot" you mention. But also, as you say, it's working to Dems advantage for as long as the investigation is in the news. Drip by drip, it's driving home the message; this was a coup to overthrow the results of an election and disrupt the peaceful transition of power.

Trump & Biden both have age working against them, and my suspicion is that Trump would prefer to be "kingmaker" in Mar-a-lago than actual President. For a guy who likes golf and cable tv, I bet in many ways he's glad to be out of the Oval Office with all its tedious responsibilities.

I'd forgotten how he scuppered the Republican turn-out of voters in Georgia -once in the run-offs, I think, and again with his "vote for Stacey Abrams" message. And clearly, SGR, you are not on the Trump supporter's mailing list, or you would've seen this, just a week ago (Oct 13):-

I'm hoping you're wrong with your prediction of the infrastructure bills failing. Certainly, that will spell disaster for the Dems, as will the voter supression issues if they don't do something to counteract what the GOP is currently doing state by state to skew or overturn election results. As if two ways of catastrophic failure weren't enough, the Biden admin also needs to show some progress on the economic recovery if they want to be invited back next term.

A prediction of yours that I'm happier with: AOC for President! That would be something to see!

:laughing: (then checks to see that my address is not in my "User CP" profile)

Call me a pessimist but I have faith in the American people- that we will screw it up yet again.

With the average American having the attention span of a housefly, I wouldn't count on it.

Nah, his ego won't let him stay at Mar-a-Lago. He will run again, and he'll likely be elected again, because, again, the average American has the attention span...



I'm afraid they already have. Two Democrats who aren't really Democrats have already said no to much of the bills. With our luck, we'll be lucky to fix the cities' potholes.

We can overcome the voter suppression issues if enough people come out to vote. They might have to be a little more vocal as well. I still think the deciding issue will be if they get the Covid crisis under control. I think the economy will take care of itself but people are only going to wear masks for so long.

Not a chance. Not only is she way too easy to demonize, she refuses to compromise even with mainstream liberals and her politics makes Bernie Sanders look like a Reaganite.

... still negotiating though, so some hope left. A drastically reduced bill could still work as a thin end of the wedge; that gets passed, Dems survive the midterms and pass a bit more. Admitedly, one problem with this scenario is that I haven't heard anyone else suggest it :(

:laughing: You're right, of course, she takes some pretty extreme positions. My campaign advice for AOC: talk less and dance more:

"people are only gonna wear masks for so long.."

Yeah i already quit wearing them. Saw a granny in cvs with one on today and i felt a little bad walking past her... But only slightly cause nobody is wearing them hardly

It seems like covid is just gonna be another flu type illness that we deal with every year at this point...

Wear them when you're feeling sick though. I wear mine in public places that people HAVE to go to. Doctor, food market, post office, liquor store, general service places...

I don't wear mine in my shop because I have a sign outside saying I'm vaccinated. I also run a specialty shop. You don't HAVE to come here.

However, if I have a cough or a sneeze or runny nose, you bet your ass I'm wearing that mask all day and getting tested.

Society rules have changed a bit. It's no different than NOT sneezing in a strangers face. You would never do that. It's a thing you do to be able to live in a civilized society. I think wearing a mask if you're sick or near at risk people should be automatic as stopping at red lights because society deemed it safer.

These people that cough in others faces because they like Trump need to be cast out of this world. They have decided not to play ball. F*ck them.