Joe Biden Love Thread

[The Batlord]

Edgy economics bois are still boring as fuk.

[TheBig3]

...what?

[The Batlord]

Come on that isn't even a hard joke to parse. "Good recession" sounds like something a hypothetical edgy econ nerd would say.

[TheBig3]

I guess I don't get what makes it edgy

[The Batlord]

You don't get that it kinda sounds insensitive and detached?

[jwb]

Originally Posted by TheBig3

The last good one meaning effective one? That depends on your morals I guess, they're all "good" in that they end bad practices e.g. Housing speculation in 2008. You could also say Paul Volker's insane increase on interest rates in 1979 drove inflation way down. That's a major one. Savings & Loan Crisis in the late 80's was minor, and the dotcom bust in the late 90s didn't seem catastrophic (unless you were working for pets.com)

Hopefully that gives you an answer, but I'd need to know what you mean by "good recession."

I mean I'm sure the great depression sparked some policy changes too lol. This is honestly a bizarre argument on your part.

Even if you make the argument the 2008 crisis was somehow good cause of whatever policy change you think it sparked, that's like giving credit to the arsonist after firefighters put out the fire. I don't even know what you mean by housing speculation ended after 2008, I don't think that is true at all. But even if it is true you can hopefully see the flaw in this logic.

Similarly, with the 1979 rate hikes you can argue that was a harsh but necessary monetary policy that as a negative byproduct caused a recession. In fact, according to wiki it actually caused two recessions as well as long term damage to the manufacturing in this country, especially in specific rust belt areas that have never really managed to fully recover. So yes, still falling short on good examples of recessions not being bad.

Getting back to the current situation, you could potentially argue the rate hikes are actually good monetary policy in the long run, but if they cause a recession, that is a negative byproduct at best. That byproduct will still cause short and/or potentially even long term pain, and it can also still hurt Biden even if you think the monetary policy that spurred it on is a necessary measure.

But it doesn't even seem like that is necessarily the case here. It just came out yesterday that yet another expert is saying that the Fed is dragging us in to an avoidable recession through their monetary policy:

The United States is headed towards a recession that was "totally avoidable," a top economist said Sunday. What's more, Federal Reserve mistakes that will "go down in history books" are to blame.

...

One mistake the Fed made, he explained, was "mischaracterizing the inflation as transitory. By that, they meant it is temporary, it's reversible, don't worry about it."

A second mistake came when the Fed recognized that inflation was "persistent and high," he added. "They didn't act. They didn't act in a meaningful way."

Now we risk the Fed making a third mistake, he said, which is that after not easing off the accelerator last year, " they're slamming on the brakes this year, which would tip us in to a recession... This will go down as a big policy error by the Fed."

...

Siegel, like El-Erian, said the Fed had made mistakes of historical proportions: "The last two years [are] one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed, by staying so easy when everything was booming."

He continued: "They were way too easy through 2020 and 2021, and now [impersonates the Fed], 'We're going to be real tough guys until we crush the economy.' I mean, that is just to me absolutely, poor monetary policy would be an understatement."

https://fortune.com/2022/10/09/reces...amed-el-erian/

So unlike Volcker who was cleaning up a previous administration's inflation problem, the Fed is at least in large part dealing with a crisis they helped exasperate in the last couple years. According to some people anyway.

[TheBig3]

The alternative is that the price of everything continues to increase. We have social programs for the unemployed. If eggs cost $15 a dozen, you're on your own.

I'm not numb to the idea that this is going to **** the working class. I'm pissed about it to. But the solution is Congress doing something. And since half the country is in the death grip of a fascist, I'm not sure what there is to do.

[jwb]

That's really not a satisfying response. I hope you know that. You started this by saying "recessions aren't necessarily bad" when I asked you if the predicted recession of 2023 could get Biden ousted. Now you are shifting to the idea that it's just a lesser of two evils. But you're still making it sound like their hands were completely tied. What are your thoughts specifically on the article I posted which claimed otherwise?

[SGR]

[TheBig3]

Originally Posted by jwb

That's really not a satisfying response. I hope you know that. You started this by saying "recessions aren't necessarily bad" when I asked you if the predicted recession of 2023 could get Biden ousted. Now you are shifting to the idea that it's just a lesser of two evils. But you're still making it sound like their hands were completely tied. What are your thoughts specifically on the article I posted which claimed otherwise?

I didn't read everything you wrote. I'll be honest, most people on the internet - including MB - don't really want to have an exchange of ideas. They want to be told their right. I'll read the article, but I assume you're actually looking for the truth and not confirmation. I also didn't see the question you asked.

My thoughts on the article:

One mistake the Fed made, he explained, was “mischaracterizing inflation as transitory. By that, they meant it is temporary, it’s reversible, don’t worry about it.”

A second mistake came when the Fed recognized that inflation was “persistent and high,” he added. “They didn’t act. They didn’t act in a meaningful way.”

This feels like the same point. It was characterized as transitory, and it was persistent.

Now we risk the Fed making a third mistake, he said, which is that after not easing off the accelerator last year, “they are slamming on the brakes this year, which would tip us into a recession…This will go down as a big policy error by the Fed.”

Again. The Fed isn't blind to this possibility. Which is why they were taking baby steps initially. They want a "light rain" not a perfect storm.

The Fed has been raising interest rates to fight inflation, but fears of a recession are mounting. This week, Fortune described the views of seven top economic thinkers who believe a recession is coming.

As the saying goes, economists predicted the last 11 out of 5 recessions. Nevermind this inflation which they all openly admit they do not understand.

The rest of the article is just:

• Elon agrees
• Worst decision of the 110-year history
• Should have done more in 2020/2021

I'm taking this as monday morning quarterbacking. And a really lazy appeal to authority for weird internet nerds "even Elon - our lord and savior - said this guys right. And Elon built a tunnel!"

As for your question:

You started this by saying "recessions aren't necessarily bad" when I asked you if the predicted recession of 2023 could get Biden ousted.

To elaborate, and I feel like I said this, I think it's going to be an imbalanced recession. As was inflation. The heartland got it real bad up front during the "transitory" days.

Yes, a recession could oust Biden. But so could anything else. I don't know why this is question - I feel like you left something out of the question. But the problem is the Fed and Congress are able to do a lot more than the President. And while most people don't know that, when it comes time to ask his opponent what they'd do, people are going to find unsatisfactory answers. Is the GOP going to subsidize eggs? At any rate, 2024 is a long ways away. Nothing happening now will factor in to that election. Remember how outraged people were about the Afghanistan withdrawal?

No one cares.