2020 US Election Thread

[OccultHawk]

Originally Posted by TheBig3

It's said that if all the people on earth grouped up together they'd take up slightly more space than the State of Rhode Island. Doubtless, we could fit them all in Montana.

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[TheBig3]

Fine, I lol'd at that. Not proud of it but I did.

Speaking of things I'm not proud of, I have to admit after years of them getting the best concerts, and transplants always sending photos back east from the beach whilst we were getting buried in snow, I take some joy in seeing California be "all passion, no logistics":

Newsletter: Does anyone really understand California’s ballot collection law?

[jwb]

Originally Posted by DMBFFF

Hi folks.


User: DMBFFF/Some predictions for some of the 2020 elections (my MH wiki)


wp:2020 United States elections


1. On 20 January 2021, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the US.

2. Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: Biden will win at least 3 of these states.

3. Trump will win Texas. He will get at least 5% more from the total of Texan votes than Biden because, among other things, Texas Republicans will be good at voter suppression.

4. Trump will win 2 or fewer votes at wp: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

5. wp:Jo Jorgensen will get at least 3.5 million votes and at least 2.5% of the popular vote.

6. If wp:Amy Barrett is confirmed by 3 November 2020, the GOP will lose its Senate majority.

7. If Barrett is confirmed by 3 November 2020, the combined proportions of the popular votes going to wp:Mitch McConnell, wp:Lindsey Graham, and wp:Susan Collins in their races will be less than 165%.

8. The Democrats will maintain their House majority.

9. By the end of 20 December 2020, of CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, BBC, Australian BC, and CBC, at least 7 will have declared Biden the winner.

10. The Electoral College will give Biden the majority.

11. At least 5 electors in the Electoral College will vote for neither Biden nor Trump.

12. If there is election or post-election violence between 18 October 2020 and 31 January 2021, far fewer than 1000 Americans and/or those in the US will die of it. (hopefully none)

13. If Trump loses, between 3 November 2020 and 20 January 2021, he will grant clemency (i.e. pardons, commutations, and reprieves) to at least 300 people, and at lest 80% of them will be white males over 50.

14. By 31 January 2021, the wp:FEC will report a +5% plurality of Biden over Trump.

15. By 21 January 2021, Trump will have exited the White House. (Of course he will complain and whine about it.)

16. The Liberals will win a majority in British Columbia, however slight. (wp:2020 British Columbia general election)
(Note: The British Columbia Liberal Party is considered center-right.)

17. The Saskatchewan Party will maintain its majority in Saskatchewan. (wp:2020 Saskatchewan general election)

18. wp:Jacinda Ardern's NZ Labour Party will either win a majority, or need fewer than 5 additional seats from non-Labour to support her to form the government. (such as, but not necessarily, the Green Party)

This looks like it's happening, perhaps happened, already. https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

19. In the wp:2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum, at least 42.5% will vote Yes.

20. In the wp:2020 New Zealand euthanasia referendum the majority will vote Yes.

21. For 3 November 2020, CNN, world-o-meter and Wikipedia (e.g. wp:COVID-19 pandemic by country and territory) will list fewer than 12 million Americans with covid-19 and fewer than 300 000 dead.

22. Sadly, contrary to Trump's prediction, there will be no vaccine for covid-19 by 3 November 2020 (at least not one that's safe, effective, and affordable for +90% of Americans—say enough for over 400 million people costing less than $50 billion total).

23. By 20 January 2021 fewer than 20 million Americans will have had covid-19, and fewer than 400 000 will have died of it.

24. By 20 January 2021 fewer than 600 000 Canadians will have had covid-19, and fewer than 30 000 will have died of it.






If I don't reply within 36 hours of this post, I probably won't until 2021.

Until then, Happy elections, Thanksgiving, Samhain, Hanukkah, Solstice, Christmas, and New Year.






wp:2016 United States presidential election#Results by state

states where the winner had a ≥30% plurality over 2nd place in 2016.

California—over 4 million
D.C.
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Wyoming

If you vote for Biden in any of these states only for strategic reasons, you are probably throwing your vote away.

Vote your heart, or someone close(r) to it.

(source)

No prediction on whether the election is going to be decided in the supreme court etc?

[Lisnaholic]

These days, historical perspectives and hard economic facts don't seem to have much place in electioneering. That's one reason that neither Dems nor GOP are presenting this kind of info to the electorate:-



As with WWII, Coronavirus will be pushing many countries to new national debt peaks. Unfortunately for the US, Trump has already nudged the debt up to WWII levels, and as the graph is dated April 2020, the startling effects of CV bail-outs may be still to come: I imagine that they will show as a vertical line going off the scale, but let's not worry, someone else will be picking up the tab, I suppose.

[TheBig3]

And yet, one of the nations foremost economists says Biden should spend like a drunken sailor


Why Biden Will Need to Spend Big
The economic case for deficit spending is overwhelming.

[OccultHawk]

I don’t know how literal you’re being but ain’t nothing can’t fail

[Lisnaholic]

Here's a cool graphic that shows the proportion of global debt per country:-



America, naturally is a big chunk, but to see a country's debt vulnerability you have to check its colour with the horizontal scale at the bottom; the countries in bad shape are the yellow ones. They are the ones who can't afford to borrow their way out of the covid economic crisis. Although a little closer to yellow than Britain, the US looks ok at a glance.

Of course as we know from personal experience, the significant thing about a debt is how you spent the money. A student loan or a mortgage on a house is with luck a good investment; a debt incurred because you fancied a trip round the world, probably not so much. I wonder what the US and UK have to show for their debts: a solid house, or an album full of faded photos: "Yeah, we had an amazing time!"

[OccultHawk]

Of course as we know from personal experience, the significant thing about a debt is how you spent the money. A student loan or a mortgage on a house is with luck a good investment; a debt incurred because you fancied a trip round the world, probably not so much. I wonder what the US and UK have to show for their debts: a solid house, or an album full of faded photos: "Yeah, we had an amazing time!"

Considering the temporary nature of existence imo you’re underestimating the value of experience.

My violence is a dream
A 'real dream'
A skinny arm
A crush on living sin
My violence
Is a sleeping head
Nodding out to rising bliss
I left home for experience
Carved 'suk for honesty' on my chest
My violence is the number
Coming out of prayer
Find it in the father
Find it in a girl
There's a thing in my memory
Hoilding on for dear life
With a feeling of secrets
Beating up under my flesh
My tongue is tied
I'm sleeping nights awake
Tom violence is a dream
Coming out of a girl

The economy and money itself is a social construct. I don’t think America can borrow into perpetuity and I believe economic models claiming it can are contiguous wishful musings. Nonetheless, imo America’s real problem is a crisis of faith. Sure there are economic mechanisms that shield America from the piper but as faith disintegrates the shield crumbles.

On a secondary note, wow, Japan is in a ****ing pickle.

Third, Americans cannot eat missiles.

[Lisnaholic]

Originally Posted by OccultHawk

Considering the temporary nature of existence imo you’re underestimating the value of experience.

That's a good old hippie-era philosophical debate right there! I'm aware that like so many, I put "value of experience" to one side, or rather traded it in for the experience of comfort and security.

And as we started out with national politics as the topic, I bet secure investment wins over vivid experience: What do we want to hear from a local councillor: "We have good infrastructure" or "Wow! We sure had a blast, didn't we?"

[Frownland]

Originally Posted by elphenor

nobody even knows how much debt the US can take on before it really matters

we're a bit like Trump in that regard, our brand is too big to fail even as we make one stupid decision after another

I'm pretty sure that China's recent infrastructure assistance in Africa is a form of alliance building for when the u.s. debt comes due because they know that the u.s. will fight any payment requests and ensuing sanctions.