2020 US Election Thread

[Mindy]

Originally Posted by rostasi

Yeah, then the Russkis will send out assassins for Harris and they'll get what they want in Gabbard.

[TheBig3]

Originally Posted by Lisnaholic

Bottom line: I'd like you to be right, Big3, the same way I'd like Biden to establish some bipartisan rapport, but I'm worried you're both underestimating the unscrupulous venom of Republicans.

I'm not. To steal a line from Game of Thrones, I think they'd burn the country down if they could be king of the ashes.

The issue is I don't think the country will tolerate it. Trump is an election loser. And the GOP can't run against Biden like they wanted to. They tried to make him the Antifa candidate and they lost. They lost in Georgia and Arizona which is embarrassing. I had a professor once say "The toughest thing to do in lobbying is not to go against opposition but indifference." That's relevant here. The GOP can't win if:

1. People vote (which is why the suppression laws are cropping up)
2. They don't have grievance.

Suppression laws aren't new. And we've overcome them before. It's a turnout issue because the Left is consistently stupid. They say things like "lesser of two evils" and "neoliberals are Republicans" or **** like "Bernie is great and should be President." and so most of them stay home. The GOP never beats the Left. The Left beats the Left.

Obama was black, so it was easy to scare white folks who don't have media literacy. A sad thing to admit but it's the truth. They tried to destroy Bill Clinton and they failed. They're trying to destroy Biden but they haven't been able to so far. He isn't what they keep claiming he is. And he's got them on the run to some degree with this Jan. 6th Commission. The more they talk about that the more consistently they're ****ed.

Biden knows how the game is played, it would seem. He doesn't take the bait, he knows how to Dog Whistle to working class voters with things that I admittedly roll my eyes at, but when he says things like "Man, my father knew how to drive a car." - it's a common cultural view of the world. And it's a defanging.

Combine this with the fact that the GOP is moving "rightward" in a direction that people can't relate to. In a gerrymandered district you might win. But those people effect elections. Remember the 2012 election where two Republicans made idiotic comments about rape? "If it's real rape, bodies have ways of shutting that whole thing down." Those people damage the party. And we keep moving in the direction. If you really want to win 2024, keep Matt Gaetz in office.

As for the Boomers, yes, some will vote for Biden. Sure. But the GOP is increasingly White, Male, Non-College Educated. And because of that, they keep playing up to issues for that demographic. But the GOP lost because of Suburban Woman largely. And what have they done to secure those votes? Throw Liz Cheney out of office? Trumps lack of a megaphone, and Biden seeming to get both COVID and the economy back on track is going to hurt the GOP.

Not everything is great. People moving South has given Red States more seats, and the mid-terms generally favor the party out of power. But keep in mind that the GOP campaigned on repealing Obamacare for 7 years and they couldn't do it. The problem with Power is you have to do what you campaigned on. When you don't, you lose. And the GOP isn't moving in the "let's get people who can write bills" direction. Unless the Left does the same (and thankfully those morons are about 15% of the Democratic Party) they'll do well in 2024. That said, State Legislatures are a real concern.

[rostasi]

What happens when the Dems win a state with, let's say, 70%
(thinking big) and the right-wing control of the state says "naaaah..."?

What happens when informed Dems know this possibility
ahead of time and decide it's not worth voting?

[TheBig3]

Originally Posted by rostasi

What happens when the Dems win a state with, let's say, 70%
(thinking big) and the right-wing control of the state says "naaaah..."?

What happens when informed Dems know this possibility
ahead of time and decide it's not worth voting?

Many things need to happen before either of these things occur. So answering this wouldn't take into account the 12 steps between now and then.

But what happens to a legislature that bucks the will of 70% of it's population? State Legislators are much closer to the voting public than Congress is.

[The Batlord]

Originally Posted by TheBig3

I'm not. To steal a line from Game of Thrones, I think they'd burn the country down if they could be king of the ashes.

The issue is I don't think the country will tolerate it. Trump is an election loser. And the GOP can't run against Biden like they wanted to. They tried to make him the Antifa candidate and they lost. They lost in Georgia and Arizona which is embarrassing. I had a professor once say "The toughest thing to do in lobbying is not to go against opposition but indifference." That's relevant here. The GOP can't win if:

1. People vote (which is why the suppression laws are cropping up)
2. They don't have grievance.

Suppression laws aren't new. And we've overcome them before. It's a turnout issue because the Left is consistently stupid. They say things like "lesser of two evils" and "neoliberals are Republicans" or **** like "Bernie is great and should be President." and so most of them stay home. The GOP never beats the Left. The Left beats the Left.

Obama was black, so it was easy to scare white folks who don't have media literacy. A sad thing to admit but it's the truth. They tried to destroy Bill Clinton and they failed. They're trying to destroy Biden but they haven't been able to so far. He isn't what they keep claiming he is. And he's got them on the run to some degree with this Jan. 6th Commission. The more they talk about that the more consistently they're ****ed.

Biden knows how the game is played, it would seem. He doesn't take the bait, he knows how to Dog Whistle to working class voters with things that I admittedly roll my eyes at, but when he says things like "Man, my father knew how to drive a car." - it's a common cultural view of the world. And it's a defanging.

Combine this with the fact that the GOP is moving "rightward" in a direction that people can't relate to. In a gerrymandered district you might win. But those people effect elections. Remember the 2012 election where two Republicans made idiotic comments about rape? "If it's real rape, bodies have ways of shutting that whole thing down." Those people damage the party. And we keep moving in the direction. If you really want to win 2024, keep Matt Gaetz in office.

As for the Boomers, yes, some will vote for Biden. Sure. But the GOP is increasingly White, Male, Non-College Educated. And because of that, they keep playing up to issues for that demographic. But the GOP lost because of Suburban Woman largely. And what have they done to secure those votes? Throw Liz Cheney out of office? Trumps lack of a megaphone, and Biden seeming to get both COVID and the economy back on track is going to hurt the GOP.

Not everything is great. People moving South has given Red States more seats, and the mid-terms generally favor the party out of power. But keep in mind that the GOP campaigned on repealing Obamacare for 7 years and they couldn't do it. The problem with Power is you have to do what you campaigned on. When you don't, you lose. And the GOP isn't moving in the "let's get people who can write bills" direction. Unless the Left does the same (and thankfully those morons are about 15% of the Democratic Party) they'll do well in 2024. That said, State Legislatures are a real concern.

So how do you think it goes when the more extreme wing of the right stops being politically viable? Do you think we get stability? I think we get fertilizer bombs.

[The Batlord]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness

Harris/Gabbard for 2024!

Gabbard's in a cult, bro.

[Mindy]

Originally Posted by The Batlord

Gabbard's in a cult, bro.

[The Batlord]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness

Seriously, she's a cult whackadoo whose election campaign was managed by cult members.

[The Batlord]

And you just wait till Hispanics get allowed into the white people club. Enrique Tarrio is just the beginning.

[Lisnaholic]

Originally Posted by TheBig3

I'm not. To steal a line from Game of Thrones, I think they'd burn the country down if they could be king of the ashes.

That's another good quote!

The issue is I don't think the country will tolerate it. Trump is an election loser. And the GOP can't run against Biden like they wanted to. They tried to make him the Antifa candidate and they lost. They lost in Georgia and Arizona which is embarrassing. I had a professor once say "The toughest thing to do in lobbying is not to go against opposition but indifference." That's relevant here. The GOP can't win if:

1. People vote (which is why the suppression laws are cropping up)
2. They don't have grievance.

Suppression laws aren't new. And we've overcome them before. It's a turnout issue because the Left is consistently stupid. They say things like "lesser of two evils" and "neoliberals are Republicans" or **** like "Bernie is great and should be President." and so most of them stay home. The GOP never beats the Left. The Left beats the Left.

Obama was black, so it was easy to scare white folks who don't have media literacy. A sad thing to admit but it's the truth. They tried to destroy Bill Clinton and they failed. They're trying to destroy Biden but they haven't been able to so far. He isn't what they keep claiming he is. And he's got them on the run to some degree with this Jan. 6th Commission. The more they talk about that the more consistently they're ****ed.

Biden knows how the game is played, it would seem. He doesn't take the bait, he knows how to Dog Whistle to working class voters with things that I admittedly roll my eyes at, but when he says things like "Man, my father knew how to drive a car." - it's a common cultural view of the world. And it's a defanging.

Combine this with the fact that the GOP is moving "rightward" in a direction that people can't relate to. In a gerrymandered district you might win. But those people effect elections. Remember the 2012 election where two Republicans made idiotic comments about rape? "If it's real rape, bodies have ways of shutting that whole thing down." Those people damage the party. And we keep moving in the direction. If you really want to win 2024, keep Matt Gaetz in office.

As for the Boomers, yes, some will vote for Biden. Sure. But the GOP is increasingly White, Male, Non-College Educated. And because of that, they keep playing up to issues for that demographic. But the GOP lost because of Suburban Woman largely. And what have they done to secure those votes? Throw Liz Cheney out of office? Trumps lack of a megaphone, and Biden seeming to get both COVID and the economy back on track is going to hurt the GOP.

Not everything is great. People moving South has given Red States more seats, and the mid-terms generally favor the party out of power. But keep in mind that the GOP campaigned on repealing Obamacare for 7 years and they couldn't do it. The problem with Power is you have to do what you campaigned on. When you don't, you lose. And the GOP isn't moving in the "let's get people who can write bills" direction. Unless the Left does the same (and thankfully those morons are about 15% of the Democratic Party) they'll do well in 2024. That said, State Legislatures are a real concern.

You make some good rational arguments - and that may be their weakness. Will Republican voters be thinking about previous presidential terms, about Obamacare? Even Biden's success with covid might be either a fading memory or remembered with resentment as an example of Holocaust-style Dem repression, as MT Greene is now re-casting it.

I guess we can only wait and see which voters are inspired by reality-based analysis as you lay it out, and which voters are going to vote against those space-laser pedophiles at any cost.
____________________________________________

A question I haven't seen debated anywhere yet: Supposing, with so many investigations into Trump going on, he's in court or under house arrest when the next elections come round? How will the GOP party and voters react to that circumstance?