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WWWP 08-12-2020 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwb (Post 2130539)
Think people are saying that because of how weak Biden seems. It's literally not even clear if he'll run for a second term if he wins. He is just a place holder candidate in every sense of the word

Reminds me of 2000, simpler times. And Cheney has 27 times the heart she does.

The Batlord 08-12-2020 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WWWP (Post 2130548)
Reminds me of 2000, simpler times. And Cheney has 27 times the heart she does.

Most of it was removed though.

TheBig3 08-12-2020 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OccultHawk (Post 2130547)
2 and a half hours of Steve Bannon?

I get that it's not for everyone. But I do wonder how many DSA members (who never listened to him before) would react to Bannon saying a lot of things that they wouldn't disagree with.

If not this, American Dharma was also a great interview with him. I saw it in Cambridge and the Director spoke afterward. It was a great interview and the Q&A was wild.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoundgardenRocks (Post 2130546)
I think Biden himself has said as much -

I still remember watching the New York Times Probability Meter on Election night in 2016. Hillary had, I think, a 95% chance of winning at the beginning before the results started to pour in. Hour after after, that lead slowly dissipated, until - by the time I grew tired enough to go to bed, around 2am EST - Hillary had around a 1-2% chance of winning.

Do you trust the polls this time?

The New York Times is not Fivethirtyeight. I trust nothing all the time but Nate Silver said throughout the Summer of 2016 the polling was trash, that it was not easy to predict, but also that polls showing Trump way behind as being unfounded.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WWWP (Post 2130548)
Reminds me of 2000, simpler times. And Cheney has 27 times the heart she does.

Actually lol'd. Well said.

jwb 08-12-2020 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBig3 (Post 2130540)
Yeah, that's probably true. But politics isn't a game of big numbers. We're talking about maybe 5 states, and certain counties that really determine the game in any year. Fivethirtyeight is giving Biden big odds in November.

Yes but by all accounts the pro Biden vote is riding on the back of anti Trump sentiment. I don't think his odds have much of anything to do with him, his policies or his running mate. If the coronavirus or the economic situation somehow turned around before the election you won't see those kinds of odds.

Quote:

I think Biden took Pelosi's advice and took someone who's going to help him win.
As opposed to what? There's nobody he was seriously considering who was not a moderate.

Quote:

I continue to go back to South Carolina. Twitter called Biden dead. Pundits told Biden he was dead. I'm sure this place had some comments. And yet, all the projected winners are gone now. If you want to win this thing you have to keep in mind the South Carolinian without a Twitter account.
it wasn't looking great for him before SC but that was actually surprising considering his front runner status before the primaries. It was pretty surprising to see him not even get 3rd place. That was just a really poor showing on his part.

I don't believe it's going to be the older black people in SC who according to you don't have Twitter who will make the difference for him in the general election, obviously. Like I said I believe fundamentally it will depend on Trump and the current state of things. Biden could've selected Warren or even Sanders as a running mate and still won under the current conditions. He had no interest in doing so. He said flat out he would veto M4A even if it passed Congress.

TheBig3 08-12-2020 07:17 PM

No, you're right. I think Biden would be up but not by a lot over Trump without Covid. Biden doesn't electrify people. He's the guy this year because he represents stability. Thats about it.

And I think the Kamala=Win comment has more to do with looking at the numbers, rather than her being a moderate. Who did he need to win? Where is he vulnerable? What would unite the party? I don't think he's ever going to get the DSA crowd so you can't factor them in. That's why he sucked out all that woman's blackness a few pages back.

Frownland 08-12-2020 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBig3 (Post 2130553)
But I do wonder how many DSA members (who never listened to him before) would react to Bannon saying a lot of things that they wouldn't disagree with.

Seems like you already have a good concept of what it would be like. What kind of reaction did you have in mind from that group?

jwb 08-12-2020 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBig3 (Post 2130553)
I get that it's not for everyone. But I do wonder how many DSA members (who never listened to him before) would react to Bannon saying a lot of things that they wouldn't disagree with.

Like what specifically?

The only overlap I've ever heard is a generic distaste for the Davos elites and some protectionist oriented trade policies. But I can't say I'm that familiar with him

TheBig3 08-12-2020 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frownland (Post 2130556)
Seems like you already have a good concept of what it would be like. What kind of reaction did you have in mind from that group?

Yeah, but I'm not interested in my own reaction. I want to know where the gap between is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwb (Post 2130557)
Like what specifically?

The only overlap I've ever heard is a generic distaste for the Davos elites and some protectionist oriented trade policies. But I can't say I'm that familiar with him

Well to make it more digestible, PBS walks through chronologically so you get the ethos in the first 20 mins. But I'd rather hear what people think than just give my opinion. I like mixing it up.

Frownland 08-12-2020 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBig3 (Post 2130558)
Yeah, but I'm not interested in my own reaction. I want to know where the gap between is.

That's why I asked about your concept of how dsa members would react to "agreeing" with Bannon.

TheBig3 08-12-2020 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frownland (Post 2130559)
That's why I asked about your concept of how dsa members would react to "agreeing" with Bannon.

I'm guessing it's not as wide as either side would think. But I suppose thats what I was hoping to find out.


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