SGR

She was completely with it mentally as far as I could tell. Not to mention, as a political manipulator, she was extremely talented. Physically though, she appeared to have issues. Needing help walking up stairs, coughing fits, collapsing at that 9/11 event, etc. Biden on the other is not completely with it mentally, but seems to be fine physically. Combine the best aspects of the two candidates, and there would probably be no way Trump could win reelection.

Some Democrats seem to believe that the opposition to Trump is strong enough that they could run anyone against him and win. I'm just not convinced. As Trump said, he could "shoot someone on fifth avenue and not lose any support". He has a pretty hardened base of support and it doesn't seem to matter what he does or says in regards to that level of support.

TheBig3

It's a bit like a dozen knobs all be adjusted slightly. A little less on the sexism this time, a little more on Trump having a record, a little less memory that there was a black guy as president, a little more on "oh yeah, those tweets kinda bother me."

The Democrats can't run anyone. But the negatives of his opponent are down. His negatives are up, and 2018 proved the suburbs were getting nervous. Now he doesn't even have the economy.

Keep in mind that even if Biden loses, if he allows us to keep the pressure up on the Senate and we take it, and keep the House, it would be a new dawn. And then the people crying about Biden can get what they want. More progressives in Congress and a Trump victory.

SGR

In the abstract, I think you're right. But the primary guy who has to get this messaging across has trouble putting more than three sentences together coherently.

I agree mostly. But whether or not those suburban voters feel satisfied with their vote is up for grabs. As far as I understand it, many campaigned on kitchen table issues. Have they delivered on their promises? I don't know the answer to that. The economy might improve just enough that it will sway the vote of independent voters. Another angle on this - and ufortunately I don't have sources at the ready for this claim, so please correct me if you think I'm totally offbase - historically, US voters rarely vote out an incumbent in a time of crisis - the risk of a change in leadership in regards to a unified direction seems to scare many Americas. Granted, Trump has been a history-defying president so perhaps this trend won't hold any water this time.

This is true. If the Dems get both chambers of congress, Trump is going to be on a short leash. But I can almost guarantee that every Trump voter, when they are in that polling both, will be checking [R]'s across the entire ticket. There's no guarantee that Trump won't be able to get the popular vote this time. Though Biden appears to be leading in almost all of the polls, there's a serious enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, and this gap is not in Biden's favor. I don't know for certain whether voter enthusiasm is a better indicator than polling for who will actually go and vote, but it is a factor that needs to be considered. Basically - it's a big "if".

The Batlord

It's basically the same question. Representative democracy is a terrible form of government because people are stupid and easily led sheep just waiting for the right manipulator to herd them in a certain direction. Representative democracy's only real benefit after you cast off all the propaganda bull**** about "will of the people" and "freedom" is that elected officials have to at least consider the will of the people when deciding policy. And when politics have become as polarized and consumed by identity politics as they are now even that benefit is dubious at best because the will of the people can become so co-opted that it is essentially just the will of the manipulator.

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jwb

A little less Hillary being the soulless face of the establishment and Trump being seen as a wildcard outsider was probably a sizable factor. Some of those key rust belt states where Obama voters turned to Trump were probably hoping to get some of the jobs back that the Clintons and their neoliberal pals helped ship over seas through NAFTA and free trade.

Plus the fact that the Dems had the presidency for 2 terms usually will tilt the advantage toward your opponent.

Also, for all the talk about sexism it seems like girl power was central to her campaign and she really didn't offer much that was interesting about her besides being the potential first woman prez. Even with that her performance with women wasn't great.

SGR

It's a good point. I've discussed this with multiple people in real life and they all claim - "Oh yeah, when I go and vote, I vote with the best information. I spend a lot of time researching to determine who I think is best". I'm always a little underwhelmed by this, and suffice it to say, I don't believe them.

I think most people (if I had to put a number on it, I'd say....85%), when they are in that voting booth, with no one watching, they vote with their feelings and with their emotions. Is that a bad thing? I don't know - I lean towards it not being a good thing, but then again, even if you know every single position and promise of a candidate, most of them don't come even moderately close to keeping those positions/promises (e.g. "Read my lips, no new taxes!" or "He kept us out of the war!" [Woodrow Wilson]). To Bat's point, media and propoganda play an outsized role in our elections.

jwb

This is a rather melodramatic framing of the question. You act like anyone owes Biden their vote. Not voting for him isn't "overturning" anyone else's vote.

I'm undecided as to whether I'll vote for him based on some of Trump's latest authoritarian stunts but if I do it certainly won't be out of any sort of loyalty to the Democrats or Biden.

SGR

Out of curiosity elph, do you have friends who were also "Bernie or Bust"? Or just big fans of Bernie?

Are they also now "Blue no matter who" or are some still "Bernie or Bust"?

This is an interesting question and I've heard convincing arguments on both sides of it. If you're generally an across-the-board liberal on all or most issues, then it would make sense to vote for Biden just for the supreme court appointments.

But, if you're a progressive who feels like Biden has made little or no effort to compromise with a progressive agenda, then perhaps he hasn't done enough to earn your vote. Perhaps, by abstaining from the election, they could show the Democrats and the DNC that, if they want to win elections in the future, they have to throw them a bone and implement some of their policy proposals.

I could understand both sides of the arguments, but as jwb said, no one owes anyone their vote, regardless of their political affiliations or preferences.

jwb

I think the black presidency definitely added to Trump's rise (which started with the birther ****) but generally speaking there's also just a trend toward the party that has been in office for 8 years losing either way.

The Batlord

I think it's more fundamental than just the specifics of modern society and voting culture. I don't think the last couple hundred years of democracy have done much to change how people relate to and interact with power and the establishment. People treat the presidency as much more important than Congress because deep down we're still just peasants looking for an authority figure to make all the decisions that we have no time, power, or inclination to make while we're either harvesting crops or managing our portfolios in much the same way that people have interacted with our leaders all throughout history. The novelty of democracy is almost just a gimmick so that the populace can puff out their chests and feel important even though they have no intention of actually being civically engaged in a way that would meaningfully transfer any power from the government to us.

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