Freebase Dali

I think the idea is more about not jumping to conclusions based on anecdotal evidence without considering all the factors that might be playing a part.

Personally, I don't think most people are intentionally bs'ing about stuff like this. I do, however, think many of them are easily confused and will latch on to an explanation and make a conclusion without exploring all the avenues.
I'm not skeptical because I think people are inherently liars. I'm skeptical because I think people are inherently prone to mistake and misconception.

However, concrete evidence is really the only way to sort out whether that's the case or not. So, it's anyone's game. But if you want to place bets on something, you're probably better off not placing them on the average person's ability to represent a fact based on their own experiences and knowledge.