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Old 10-12-2017, 07:29 PM   #7471 (permalink)
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Please excuse my meritless assuption.

I'm almost certain that the rare earth hypothesis is wrong and life does indeed spring up elsewhere around the universe, galaxy, and maybe even solar system. The point is there's no trace of any attempt to communicate, radio waves of any sort, or any sort of Dyson Spere type of megastructures. If the reasonable assumption is that humanity is not a one off the lack of evidence of our extraterrestrial cohorts suggests once they reach a certain point in technological advancement they soon die.

There's other theories. What I'm saying isn't indisputed or rock solid but it's the conclusion that strikes me as the most likely. My assumption is we're following the same course and it sure seems like it.
I choose not to believe that since it would mean less space battles.
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There is only one bright spot and that is the growing habit of disgruntled men of dynamiting factories and power-stations; I hope that, encouraged now as ‘patriotism’, may remain a habit! But it won’t do any good, if it is not universal.
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:36 PM   #7472 (permalink)
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:39 PM   #7473 (permalink)
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This is why the aliens don't talk to us.
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Originally Posted by J.R.R. Tolkien
There is only one bright spot and that is the growing habit of disgruntled men of dynamiting factories and power-stations; I hope that, encouraged now as ‘patriotism’, may remain a habit! But it won’t do any good, if it is not universal.
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Old 10-12-2017, 08:33 PM   #7474 (permalink)
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It's more the alien abduction thing.
Well there is that.
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Originally Posted by OccultHawk View Post
Please excuse my meritless assuption.

I'm almost certain that the rare earth hypothesis is wrong and life does indeed spring up elsewhere around the universe, galaxy, and maybe even solar system. The point is there's no trace of any attempt to communicate, radio waves of any sort, or any sort of Dyson Spere type of megastructures. If the reasonable assumption is that humanity is not a one off the lack of evidence of our extraterrestrial cohorts suggests once they reach a certain point in technological advancement they soon die.

There's other theories. What I'm saying isn't indisputed or rock solid but it's the conclusion that strikes me as the most likely. My assumption is we're following the same course and it sure seems like it.
Obviously I don't know, but if the likes of Sagan, Hawking, De Grasse-Tyson - minds, to quote HG Wells, immeasurably superior to ours - think there is life out there, I'm not about to argue with them. Of course they could be wrong, but I'm naturally assuming they know a hell of a lot more about the chances of discovering life beyond Earth than you or I do. In the end, it's likely that we'll never know in our lifetime - WHAT THE HELL IS THAT HUGE CIGAR-SHAPED OBJECT OUTSIDE MY WINDOW?????
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This is why the aliens don't talk to us.
Speak for yourself.
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Old 10-12-2017, 09:34 PM   #7475 (permalink)
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Of course I'm familiar with Sagan's take on the matter. I first read about the Drake equation in one of his books.

The problem with most answers to the paradox, including the one you mentioned, is it doesn't account for diversity among alien life. Too fast, too slow... but nothing detectable. If they're out there it doesn't stand to reason that they're ALL too fast or too slow or undetectable for whatever reason.

In Sagan's day the search was new. We've been bombed with decades of silence now. At some point the silence starts to mean something.
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Old 10-12-2017, 09:44 PM   #7476 (permalink)
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Obviously I don't know, but if the likes of Sagan, Hawking, De Grasse-Tyson - minds, to quote HG Wells, immeasurably superior to ours - think there is life out there, I'm not about to argue with them. Of course they could be wrong, but I'm naturally assuming they know a hell of a lot more about the chances of discovering life beyond Earth than you or I do. In the end, it's likely that we'll never know in our lifetime
If we do discover simple life forms it'll be another indicator that evolution past a certain technological threshold is impossible. And that we're almost there. If we discover an advanced life form or they discover us then there's hope. If the rare earth hypothesis is correct there's hope in that as well.

Kurzweil said he thinks we're in the lead and it's going to work out. I doubt it.

Homo sapiens have been around 200,000 years. The universe 13.7 billion years. Something's ****ed up.
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Old 10-12-2017, 09:46 PM   #7477 (permalink)
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That's fantastic. You're still an idealist who's not as naive as Qwerty, but still naive. Mostly because you're too in love with the idea of saving the world through political participation and perfecting your ideology.
The love of ideology is the root of all evil.
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Actually, I like you a lot, Nea. That's why I treat you like ****. It's the MB way.

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Old 10-12-2017, 10:25 PM   #7478 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by OccultHawk View Post
If we do discover simple life forms it'll be another indicator that evolution past a certain technological threshold is impossible. And that we're almost there. If we discover an advanced life form or they discover us then there's hope. If the rare earth hypothesis is correct there's hope in that as well.

Kurzweil said he thinks we're in the lead and it's going to work out. I doubt it.

Homo sapiens have been around 200,000 years. The universe 13.7 billion years. Something's ****ed up.
Scope.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:02 PM   #7479 (permalink)
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I have no idea about the maths but assuming it takes a few billion years at least to evolve to the point where your pollution is visible from space are there actually galaxies within an observable range that we can see in the time period that they are likely to exist and not, say a million years before they evolved that far?
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:45 AM   #7480 (permalink)
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I have no idea about the maths but assuming it takes a few billion years at least to evolve to the point where your pollution is visible from space are there actually galaxies within an observable range that we can see in the time period that they are likely to exist and not, say a million years before they evolved that far?
Equal parts: .

And:
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