Is the world about to end?

Sparky · 06-08-2014, 11:57 PM

http://www.newsweek.com/earth-headin...ts-warn-252835

Quote:

A study published Friday in the journal Science found that plant and animal species are now going extinct at least 1,000 times faster than they did prior to humanity’s arrival. That means that species are disappearing 10 times more rapidly than biologists believed before this study.

"We are on the verge of the sixth extinction," Stuart Pimm, a Duke University conservation ecologist and a lead author of the study, told the Associated Press. "Whether we avoid it or not will depend on our actions."

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'? | Nafeez Ahmed | Environment | theguardian.com

Quote:

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."

Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:

"... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels."

The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these challenges by increasing efficiency:

"Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."

Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period.

Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharrei and his colleagues conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid

We got about 10-20 years left give or take.
It would actually fall decently in line with where some recent orthodox Christians have predicted the rapture as well.

So, do you guys agree we are doomed? How do you plan to spend the rest of your existence?

DwnWthVwls · 06-09-2014, 12:42 AM

Shocking..

not really. Earth > Humans, we **** it up it presses the reset button and ****s us all. I'm not going to get started because I don't like debating about this kind of stuff. Interesting article I'm definitely going to look more into this.

Thanks.

Paul Smeenus · 06-09-2014, 12:50 AM

**Scarlett O'Hara** · 06-09-2014, 01:34 AM

If it is looming, I'll will start building my bunker and buy guns, lots of guns. Plus a life supply of make up.

I'm interested to know what you guys would do if say this actually occurred. What measures would you take?

ladyislingering · 06-09-2014, 01:47 AM

I'm already writing my eulogy.

"She was born and died angry at the patriarchy."

I'm ready.

djchameleon · 06-09-2014, 01:51 AM

Nice wishful thinking Sparky. You are most likely to die of old age before that even happens or stress yourself out so much that you end your life early.

Sparky · 06-09-2014, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djchameleon

Nice wishful thinking Sparky. You are most likely to die of old age before that even happens or stress yourself out so much that you end your life early.

haha this totally

Honestly though, that NASA study is pretty spooky. It's not just a matter of global warming

Black Francis · 06-09-2014, 02:24 AM

In 20 yrs you say? *doing math*

i'll be 51 by then probably hearing another end of the world theory.

So, do you guys agree we are doomed? How do you plan to spend the rest of your existence?

idk if we are doomed just yet, i do believe we are abusing our resources for a profit and that those mentioned elites are the one who really benefit from that but i also believe the self preservation of humanity comes before wealth cause it has to, no?

if the world is a sinking ship we'll all drown including those rich bastards, i have to believe that even though they KNOW they're aware they're raping the land for a profit they don't want to exhaust their resources to nothing so they'll know when to stop if not be regulated by another party with a super authority.

I mean, idk im drunk and im stupid and idk how to fix this but this reminds me of the Pearl jam 'do the evolution' video

symbolism up the wazoo!

"I scorched the earth BUT NOW IM HOT!"

djchameleon · 06-09-2014, 02:30 AM

Unless the rich bastards end up pooling their money into building more elaborate space stations or traveling to another planet designated as Earth2 and leaving the commoner swine behind to perish.

Sparky · 06-09-2014, 04:42 AM

so unsurprisingly the articles I've posted have been scrutunized to no end. And NASA denies any affiliation with the study other than lending technology.

Pretty interesting rebuttal:

Quote:

It is interesting how collapse theories mirror broader societal issues. During the Cold War, we had theories ascribing collapse to elite mismanagement, class conflict, and peasant revolts. As global warming became a public issue, scholars of the past began to discover that ancient societies collapsed due to climate change. As we have become concerned about sustainability and resource use today, we have learned that ancient societies collapsed due to depletion of critical resources, such as soil and forests. Now that inequality and “the 1%” are topics of public discourse, we have this paper focusing largely on elite resource consumption.

Models depend on the assumptions that go into them. Thus the first four pages of the paper are the part most worth discussing.

The paper has many flaws. The first is that “collapse” is not defined, and the examples given conflate different processes and outcomes. Thus the authors are not even clear what topic they are addressing.

Collapses have occurred among both hierarchical and non-hierarchical societies, and the authors even discuss the latter (although without understanding the implications for their thesis). Thus, although the authors purport to offer a universal model of collapse (involving elite consumption), their own discussion undercuts that argument.

Contrary to the authors’ unsubstantiated assertion, there is no evidence that elite consumption caused ancient societies to collapse. The authors simply have no empirical basis for this assumption, and that point alone undercuts most of the paper.

The authors assert that there is a “two-class structure of modern society,” and indeed their analysis depends on this being the case. The basis for this assertion comes from two papers published in obscure physics journals. That’s right, this assertion does not come from peer-review social science. It comes from journals that have no expertise in this topic, and whose audience is unqualified to evaluate the assertion critically.

In other words, there is no empirical or substantiated theoretical basis for this paper’s model.

In modeling, once one has established one’s assumptions and parameters, it is a simple matter to program the mathematics that will give the outcome one wants or expects. For this reason, models must be critically evaluated. Unfortunately, most readers are unable to evaluate a model’s assumptions. Instead, readers are impressed by equations and colored graphs, and assume thereby that a model mimics real processes and outcomes. That seems to be the case with this paper, and it represents the worst in modeling.

06-09-2014, 01:34 AM	#4 (permalink)
Scarlett O'Hara Make it so Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 6,181	If it is looming, I'll will start building my bunker and buy guns, lots of guns. Plus a life supply of make up. I'm interested to know what you guys would do if say this actually occurred. What measures would you take? __________________ "Elph is truly an enfant terrible of the forum, bless and curse him" - Marie, Queen of Thots

06-09-2014, 01:47 AM	#5 (permalink)
ladyislingering Maelian Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Seattle Posts: 695	I'm already writing my eulogy. "She was born and died angry at the patriarchy." I'm ready. __________________ You and I, We were born to die.

06-09-2014, 02:24 AM	#8 (permalink)
Black Francis Out of Place Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: in an abstract house Posts: 4,111	In 20 yrs you say? doing math i'll be 51 by then probably hearing another end of the world theory. So, do you guys agree we are doomed? How do you plan to spend the rest of your existence? idk if we are doomed just yet, i do believe we are abusing our resources for a profit and that those mentioned elites are the one who really benefit from that but i also believe the self preservation of humanity comes before wealth cause it has to, no? if the world is a sinking ship we'll all drown including those rich bastards, i have to believe that even though they KNOW they're aware they're raping the land for a profit they don't want to exhaust their resources to nothing so they'll know when to stop if not be regulated by another party with a super authority. I mean, idk im drunk and im stupid and idk how to fix this but this reminds me of the Pearl jam 'do the evolution' video symbolism up the wazoo! "I scorched the earth BUT NOW IM HOT!" __________________ "Hey Kids you got to meet the MIGHTY PIXIES!" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbRbCtIgW3A